Taddie's Time Capsule.

The first time capsule ceremony I went to was absolutely stupid.

I was attending Berkeley Lake Elementary, a little school poised on a lake that was once a water-accessible-only retreat of Atlanta's well-to-do. Actually a very scenic place, it felt cheapened by us burying an elementary school yearbook, school spirit T-shirt and some reading textbooks. I guess, even at that young age, I didn't see the point. By the time the time capsule would be opened, plenty of those yearbooks would still be in prime condition sitting unopened in people's attics and garages. The T-shirts would have near duplicates worn ironically by Vassar dropouts living in the Lower East Side. And, thanks to spectacular education funding, the textbooks are still being used, though stickers now adorn them to correct their politics.

I got a new appreciation for the idea of a time capsule after my great aunt died. Taddie's house is what Shakespeare's house might have looked like if he were a meth addict. Taddie saved everything and it made for a pretty decent treasure find these many years later. We found 19th century antiques, several very old books and a complete season of Wheel of Fortune on videotape (talk about time capsule!). Taddie had been in a nursing home for several years and her house was a wreck. A tree had hit the roof and water poured in to soak the newspapers. The mountains of clothes held humidity and let off a scent something like burning yogurt.

As we cleaned through the house, I noticed the hatch to the attic. I had dismissed the attic at first, thinking that surely nothing of value would be in the attic. Too cliché. Boy, was I wrong. My father-in-law and I ventured up to find many of the family treasures resting as they had for decades. Large oil paintings of family patriarchs. Silver that my ancestors had hidden from the meddling Yanks during "The Great Unpleasantness". Many pieces of antique furniture. And then we saw the steamer trunks.

A rat scared the crap out of me when I opened the first trunk. It was full of clothes, personal items and a few letters. Apparently, after a family member had passed, their prized possessions, at least those that could fit in the trunk, were loaded up and drug into the attic for storage. Several of these trunks rested in the attic, each filled with the things that accompanied the lives of my ancestors. While searching through one particular trunk, we found a family member's small vial of brownish liquid. My father-in-law opened it thinking the scent of Great Grandma's perfume might bring back memories for my grandparents. But it was not perfume. It was bourbon, meaning the only memories it brought back were mine of college and even those were sufficiently cloudy.

So today, we have another time capsule of sorts. In business (and in business writing, in particular) it's easy to play Monday morning quarterback. We writers and theorists love to recall spectacular blunders and strategic stumbles while we infer causation of that enterprise's demise. Doing it in reverse is another story. Far fewer theorists are willing to make predictions with the same confidence they have in judging past efforts. So I am going to try it. I'm going to make a prediction and you'll get to judge whether or not I am right. I'm going to throw something in this time capsule and the payoff will be your awe over my prediction or the enjoyment you may get from my absolutely false prediction.

Around summer 2007, Chrysler was purchased by Cerberus Capital Management LP. I know the idea of a company being taken private is all the rage as of this writing and, with important exceptions, I think this will be a good thing for Chrysler.

One plus is that Chrysler will not have to continue to make moronic decisions that boost quarterly results at the expense of long term growth, as per the instructions of stock analysts, fund managers and other assorted know-it-alls. One negative is that they traded in one set of bankers for another and, like all bankers, they expect to get paid in the timeline they demand.

This brings up plenty of questions concerning the future of Chrysler. Changes in the economy raise new and troubling questions for how Chrysler might find the funds, markets and customers to support its proposed turnaround. The perverse and often baffling nature of automotive marketing means Chrysler could be walking into the perfect storm, its finest hour or, most likely, both.

So what do I want to throw in this little time capsule? Well, I have some predictions. Current Chrysler LLC President says the turnaround should be complete by about 2013. So make a bookmark or put it on you calendar. Like sand through the hourglass, only time will tell us the fate of Chrysler. So, here we go:


1) If Chrysler thins out competing models, the existing models will sell better over time.

Chrysler execs are claiming that they no longer want to cannibalize their models. What I would like to know is why they decided to do that in the first place. And they weren't the only ones. It seemed like for a period of several years, GM would make one car, only to change its bumpers, jack it up and put a new grill on it to make whichever brand you wanted. This is what happens when you let accountants and analysts make your marketing decisions.


2) If Chrysler properly manages their portfolio of brands, they will gain share against competitors in the brand's respective market.

Why did Daimler Chrysler ever make a two-wheel drive...Jeep? It's not worth answering. By chasing the grocery-getter market they allowed the entrance of Hummer and Land Rover. People who wanted a real 4x4 did not want to drive the soccer practice special. Jeep failed to own this position, so eventually they were supplanted by more focused competitors. The Chrysler brass says they want to align and focus their brands. If they do it right, they will do well.


3) If Chrysler can get away from doing the things car companies and dealers have always done, they will benefit.

Okay, I must disclaim that Chrysler has been mum on this subject, save for their plans to thin the dealer network by a third. And I like the idea of thinning the dealerships because there are too many. When Toyota launched Lexus, part of the strategy was to limit dealerships to avoid over-saturation and enhance the elusive appeal of the car. It worked.

My opinion is that Chrysler needs to get away from door buster sales, inflatable gorillas and the guy in Atlanta who says, "All I do is discount Dodges". The dealers have cheapened the brands with their snake oil sales pitches. This once perennial brand has lost credibility due to price offs, infinite financing and campy dealer advertisements. In fact, when thinning the dealer organizations, I would start with anyone who features their kids in the ads as first on the chopping block. It's high time Chrysler grabs its wonky dealers by the horns. Hit it! (Bass line)

Chrysler has a great opportunity right now to stop being so much of a car company. For so long, Chrysler has competed on attributes and financial incentives. As if the company itself believes that no one really wants a Chrysler, they just want features and don't care about the brand. This attitude has become a self-fulfilling prophecy and the car category, which once thrived on brand differentiation, is now a wasteland of super brands that don't really stand for anything.

This new economy has a mandate. Get smarter about your marketing. To make money is not as easy as it used to be and it will not get much easier in the near future. As attributes become commodities, companies will be forced to think about what their brand means to consumers. Chrysler seems to be doing that right now. When we dig up these ideas years from now will they smell old, outdated and offensive, like the three-year-old pasta in Taddie's fridge? Or will they have seasoned and mellowed like Great Grandmama's bourbon stash? Will the concepts I have put forth just become matter of fact? Will many businesses be thinking more deeply about their interaction with consumers?